The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price fell slightly by about US$1.3 in this statistical cycle, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle was US$68.08 per barrel. The drop in crude oil prices this week is not surprising. Most analysts expect Brent crude oil to repeatedly compete around US$66 per barrel, and the market performance from Monday to Tuesday is indeed the case. But starting from Wednesday, oil prices have risen sharply, which may be related to Ecuador’s emergency announcement to suspend crude oil exports due to pipeline system failure. The country’s daily oil production is close to 500,000 barrels.
OPEC+ decided at an online meeting held on July 5 to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels from August, which will undoubtedly further increase the downward pressure on oil. Even though the summer driving season in the United States is about to begin, data from the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) does not show signs of increased demand.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Jinan Petrochemical have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250627-0706 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250627-0706 |
Daqing Ref
& Che |
|
|
20250627-0706 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and
Relocating |
|
20250627-0706 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20250627-0706 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittent |
|
20250627-0706 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250627-0706 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20250627-0706 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250627-0706 |
Jinan Ref
& Che |
Suspended |
|
20250627-0706 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250627-0706 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The market was booming this week, with both end users and dealers purchasing aggressively, resulting in some models being in short supply. Currently, national inventories have dropped to 11,000 tons.
4. Market demand
The paraffin wax market has entered an upward cycle, and downstream companies are actively purchasing.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Monday, Sinopec and PetroChina raised the listing prices of their paraffin products for the fifth consecutive week, and most popular models are in short supply. Given that Fushun Refinery, the largest paraffin refinery in the country, will start a two-month shutdown for maintenance on August 25, this wave of rising prices will most likely continue until at least the end of August.
6. Price expectations
At present, the price of paraffin wax is mainly stable with some increases, and the international oil price is currently stabilizing. Although there is pressure, there is no worry about a sharp drop; therefore, the listing price of paraffin wax may continue
to rise by 50 yuan/ton next week.