The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, international crude oil prices rose significantly this period, by approximately $2.50 per barrel, with the cyclical average price of Brent crude oil at $71.35 per barrel. This surge was primarily driven by the United States’ tough stance toward Russia. President Trump demanded that Russia make progress on the Ukraine issue within 10 days, threatening new tariffs and economic sanctions that would affect at least 1.5 million barrels per day of crude oil supply. Furthermore, the United States has reached agreements with several countries on tariffs, with tariffs of 10%-15% significantly easing economic tensions.
However, it is noteworthy that international crude oil prices began to plummet on Thursday, falling by $3 per barrel by Friday’s close. This is due to two factors: 1) The United States imposed tariffs of 10%-41% on some countries with which it has not yet reached trade agreements, such as Canada and India, which could impact global economic activity. 2) Friday’s unexpectedly weak US non-farm payroll data for July sparked concerns about an economic slowdown and the outlook for crude oil demand.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250725-0731 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250725-0731 |
Daqing Ref
& Che |
|
|
20250725-0731 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and
Relocating |
|
20250725-0731 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20250725-0731 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittent |
|
20250725-0731 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250725-0731 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20250725-0731 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250725-0731 |
Jinan Ref
& Che |
Normal |
|
20250725-0731 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250725-0731 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
This week, the market gradually cooled down, mainly due to the high temperature weather. Some factories stopped production, and the demand for medium and low melting point paraffin decreased. The current national inventory is about 10,000 tons.
4. Market demand
The demand for paraffin wax has decreased, mainly concentrated in medium and low melting point paraffin wax models, and medium and high melting point paraffin wax is still in short supply.
5. Industry analysis overview
Paraffin wax listing prices remained unchanged this week, but the resumption of production at Jinan refineries led to a slight decline in actual transaction prices. According to Northeast market data, the markup for semi-refined grades (relative to the listing price) has decreased from 100 yuan to 50 yuan or even 0 yuan, while the markup for fully refined grades has remained unchanged.
6. Price expectations
Currently, the listing price of paraffin wax is mainly stable, but popular models may still rise, such as fully refined paraffin wax 56# and above.