The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, international crude oil prices fell sharply by approximately $3.50 per barrel this statistical period, with the cyclical average price of Brent crude oil at $67.88 per barrel. Starting last Thursday, international oil prices plummeted from a high of $70 per barrel, reaching a low of $63 per barrel. Consistent with last week’s analysis, this decline stems from two factors: 1) The US is currently imposing tariffs of 10%-41% on some countries with which it has not yet reached
trade agreements (such as Canada and India), a move that could impact global economic activity. 2) The unexpectedly weak US non-farm payroll data for July has raised concerns about an economic slowdown and the outlook for crude oil demand.
Furthermore, the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin may raise hopes for a peace agreement in the Ukrainian conflict, thereby reducing the crude oil price premium caused by geopolitical risks. While trade negotiations between the US and China have calmed down for now, China’s relative isolation makes it highly likely that Trump will resort to his usual “maximum pressure” tactics, exacerbating the situation.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250801-0807 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250801-0807 |
Daqing Ref
& Che |
|
|
20250801-0807 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and
Relocating |
|
20250801-0807 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20250801-0807 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittent |
|
20250801-0807 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250801-0807 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20250801-0807 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250801-0807 |
Jinan Ref
& Che |
Normal |
|
20250801-0807 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250801-0807 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
This week’s market was relatively quiet. After two weeks of cooling, some traders and manufacturers are adopting a wait-and-see approach. National inventories have risen to 12,000 tons.
4. Market demand
The demand for paraffin wax in the market has decreased, and all parties have adopted a wait-and-see attitude.
5. Industry analysis overview
The listed price of paraffin wax remained unchanged this week. However, according to feedback from the Northeast market, profit margins for semi-refined grades have further declined, with many transactions reaching “zero profit.” The price increase for fully refined grades remains unchanged. Currently, there is a wait-and-see attitude among various parties. On the one hand, downstream companies are operating at low rates, resulting in reduced demand. On the other hand, the Fushun Refinery, China’s largest refinery, will shut down for maintenance starting August 15th, significantly reducing paraffin wax supply, especially for fully refined grades.
6. Price expectations
Currently, paraffin wax prices are generally stable. The market for semi-refined paraffin wax is sluggish; the market for fully refined paraffin wax will remain stable due to the shutdown of the Fushun refinery, especially the medium and high melting point paraffin wax types.