The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, international crude oil prices rose by approximately $1 per barrel this statistical period, with the cyclical average price of Brent crude oil at $67.51 per barrel. After reaching a high of $69 per barrel last week, international oil prices remained volatile at high levels this week. This performance is clearly related to Ukraine’s recent sustained
precision strikes against Russian refineries. While the impact on the battlefield has been minimal, buyers are already paying the risk premium. However, with the end of the summer driving season in North America, demand in the world’s largest oil consumer is expected to slow significantly. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s production increase plan is nearing completion, and the voluntary 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) cuts announced in November 2023 may be fully lifted in September. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply will increase by 2.5 million bpd in 2025, far exceeding the 700,000 bpd increase in demand, leading to a significant inventory buildup.
Overall, although the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September in the short term and the trade conflicts between the United States and major economies are gradually subsiding, the dark cloud of “oversupply” continues to suppress international oil prices.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Fushun have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250822-0828 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250822-0828 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250822-0828 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250822-0828 |
Fushun Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250822-0828 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittent |
|
20250822-0828 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250822-0828 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20250822-0828 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250822-0828 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20250822-0828 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250822-0828 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The market was relatively quiet this week, with traders and manufacturers adopting a wait-and-see attitude. National inventories have risen to 16,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Paraffin wax market demand is declining, prompting a wait-and-see approach.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week marks the second week of maintenance at the Fushun Refinery, China’s largest paraffin wax production facility. However, the paraffin wax market remains quiet, with inventories gradually rising. Based on past experience, September and October are peak seasons for paraffin wax sales. Downstream manufacturers that halted production in July and August due to high temperatures are gradually resuming operations. National paraffin wax inventory data will remain closely monitored; unless inventories continue to rise
significantly, listed prices are expected to remain stable.
6. Price expectations
Currently, paraffin wax prices are generally stable. The market for semi-refined paraffin wax is sluggish; the market for fully refined paraffin wax will remain stable due to the shutdown of the Fushun refinery, especially the medium and high melting point paraffin wax types.