20250922~20250928 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average international crude oil price remained essentially flat this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $67.92 per barrel. However, in contrast to last week’s decline, international oil prices continued to rise this week, rising from a low of $65.35 per barrel to a high of $69.87 per barrel.

The main driver of this round of price increases was the continued decline in Russia’s crude oil production and processing capacity due
to the Ukrainian attack, which exacerbated market concerns about energy supply. According to statistics, Russian refineries were partially impacted by the attack in August. Since September, as the Ukrainian attack expanded to include key energy transportation links such as pumping stations and ports, Russia’s crude oil industry has further reduced its production capacity, estimated to account for 7% to 17% of its total refining capacity. Russia has been forced to impose export restrictions on related refined oil products, and has stated that the gasoline export ban and the diesel resale export ban will remain in place until the end of 2025.

However, the fundamental situation in the international crude oil market has remained unchanged, and the fear of “oversupply” remains a concern for investors.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Fushun have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20250919-0925	Daqing Pec	Normal
20250919-0925	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20250919-0925	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20250919-0925	Fushun Pec	Suspended
20250919-0925	Lanzhou Pec	Intermittent
20250919-0925	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20250919-0925	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20250919-0925	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20250919-0925	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20250919-0925	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20250919-0925	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The paraffin wax market has seen some recovery this week, driven by a positive price reduction. National inventories have now fallen to 10,000 tons.

4. Market demand

September and October are traditionally peak seasons for paraffin wax sales, leading to increased market demand.

5. Industry analysis overview

Paraffin wax listed prices remained stable this week, demonstrating a relatively active market. While listed prices suggest there is still room for paraffin wax prices to fall, rapidly declining inventories have boosted market confidence during the “Golden September and Silver October” shopping season, postponing expectations of further price cuts.

6. Price expectations

After this week’s price adjustments, paraffin wax prices are currently largely stable, but the possibility remains that Sinopec may shift its “large buyer discounts” into listed price reductions.