The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the statistical period from September 19, 2025, to September 25, 2025, the average international crude oil price fell by $2.40 per barrel during this statistical period, with the average price of Brent crude oil reaching $65.50 per barrel. During China’s National Day holiday, international oil prices plummeted. Although there was a slight rebound from October 6 to 8, prices plummeted again on October 10, with Brent crude oil briefly falling below $62 per barrel.
In addition to the persistent bearish outlook for international crude oil prices due to oversupply, the recent sharp deterioration in the
Sino-US trade conflict has exacerbated the deterioration in the international crude oil market. US President Trump announced plans to impose 100% tariffs on China and control the export of Boeing aircraft parts in response to the divisive Sino-US trade negotiations and in retaliation for China’s export controls on rare earth products. It remains unclear whether this US government approach represents “maximum pressure” or a “long-term strategy,” but international oil prices have begun to rebound in the latest trading day.
2. Production capacity
Major refineries nationwide halted production during the National Day holiday (Oct 1, 2025, to Oct 8, 2025). During the rest of the period, Maoming, Dalian, and Fushun halted production, Lanzhou maintained intermittent production, and the remaining refineries operated normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250926-1009 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250926-1009 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250926-1009 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250926-1009 |
Fushun Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250926-1009 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittent |
|
20250926-1009 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250926-1009 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20250926-1009 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250926-1009 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20250926-1009 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250926-1009 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The paraffin wax market has seen some recovery this week, driven by a positive price reduction. National inventories have now fallen to 7,000 tons.
4. Market demand
September and October are traditionally peak seasons for paraffin wax sales, leading to increased market demand.
5. Industry analysis overview
The paraffin wax market underwent a major adjustment on October 10th, following the National Day holiday.
PetroChina: 1) Lanzhou and Daqing increased the listed prices of all semi-refined and crude paraffin wax grades by 50 yuan/ton, while fully refined grades decreased by 50 yuan/ton. 2) Fushun reduced the listed prices of all fully refined grades by 650 yuan/ton.
Sinopec: 1) Jinan increased the listed prices of all grades 60 and 62 by 50 yuan/ton, while other grades remained unchanged. 2) Jingmen disclosed the previously discounted prices for large-scale suppliers, but increased the listed prices of all grades 52, 60, and 62 by 50 yuan/ton. 3) Gaoqiao eliminated the discounted prices for large-scale suppliers and directly aligned the listed prices with the market price.
Based on the adjusted prices, Sinopec currently has a significant advantage in fully refined paraffin wax, while PetroChina has an advantage in most semi-refined and crude paraffin waxes.
6. Price expectations
This week’s price adjustment represents a minor adjustment based on rapidly declining domestic inventories. Fushun and Gaoqiao seem to be making significant moves, while in reality, production in Fushun has been halted and Shanghai has limited inventory only. Overall, paraffin wax prices are currently stable. Even with increased market demand, the two-month Fushun production halt is expected to end soon, making a supply shortage unlikely.