The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average international crude oil price fell again by over $3 per barrel this statistical period, with the cyclical average price of Brent crude oil at $62.28 per barrel. This week’s international developments were unfavorable for the international crude oil market: 1) Trump spoke with Putin again and agreed to hold talks in Budapest, Hungary, in the coming weeks to seek a swift end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 2) The Sino-US trade war is showing signs of escalation, with targeted policies such as chip and rare earth controls, and shipping frictions fueling investor concerns about global economic development. 3) According to the IEA’s latest monthly report, the global oil supply surplus is projected to reach 2.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Currently, the Brent crude oil price has broken through the critical level of $60 per barrel, and the outlook is not optimistic.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, Fushun is recovering, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20251010-1016 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20251010-1016 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20251010-1016 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20251010-1016 |
Fushun Pec |
Recovering |
|
20251010-1016 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittent |
|
20251010-1016 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20251010-1016 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20251010-1016 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20251010-1016 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20251010-1016 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20251010-1016 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The paraffin wax market performed well this week, driven by declining paraffin prices. With the Fushun Refinery, China’s largest refinery, completing maintenance and gradually resuming production this week, national inventories have risen slightly to 8,000 tons.
4. Market demand
September and October are traditionally peak seasons for paraffin wax sales, leading to increased market demand.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, PetroChina’s paraffin wax prices remained stable, while Sinopec specifically increased the list price of some of its products by 50 yuan/ton. With the completion of the Fushun refinery’s maintenance shutdown, over 1,000 tons/month of production capacity will be returned to the market. Even during the traditional peak paraffin wax sales season of September and October, market demand appears insufficient to absorb such a large production capacity. If national inventories continue to rise, coupled with the current
downward trend in international crude oil prices, paraffin wax prices may enter a downward cycle, similar to previous years.
6. Price expectations
With the resumption of production at the Fushun Refinery, China’s largest refinery by production capacity, paraffin wax supply has increased. Although currently in its traditional peak season, paraffin wax demand and international crude oil prices continue to decline, resulting in a relatively stable price for paraffin wax.