The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average international crude oil price remained essentially flat this period, with Brent crude averaging $62.44 per barrel. However, in stark contrast to the sharp decline in the previous period, international oil prices rose significantly during this statistical period. International oil prices fell to $60 per barrel, initially halting their decline after the US announced a military strike against Venezuela and then canceled a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest. However, starting on Tuesday (October 21st), the market trend suddenly shifted. The US announced new sanctions against two major Russian oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, triggering a four-day rally in oil prices, reaching as high as $66 per barrel.
However, without any concrete reports of a reduction in crude oil supply, the international crude oil “oversupply” situation remains unchanged, and downward pressure on international oil prices remains.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20251017-1023 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20251017-1023 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20251017-1023 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20251017-1023 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20251017-1023 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittent |
|
20251017-1023 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20251017-1023 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20251017-1023 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20251017-1023 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20251017-1023 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20251017-1023 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
Affected by the decline in paraffin prices, the paraffin market is in good condition this week, and the national inventory has dropped to 6,000 tons.
4. Market demand
September and October are traditionally peak seasons for paraffin wax sales, leading to increased market demand.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, PetroChina’s paraffin wax prices remained stable, while Sinopec again adjusted the list prices of some of its grades by 50-100 yuan/ton. This is primarily due to the current low inventory situation, with Sinopec’s popular grades running at very low levels, while production capacity is relatively low. Last week, the Fushun refinery had largely resumed production, with popular grades such as 56 fully refined and 58 fully refined being produced, which will likely curb further increases in paraffin wax prices. With the end of the “Golden September and Silver October” sales season, national inventories are likely to continue to rise. Coupled with the current downward trend in international crude oil prices, paraffin wax prices may enter a downward cycle, similar to previous years.
6. Price expectations
Paraffin wax prices have been generally stable recently. However, in the coming weeks, with the end of the traditional peak sales season and coupled with international crude oil prices, the paraffin wax market is likely to enter a downward cycle again.