The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil rose by approximately $2.3 per barrel during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $65.52 per barrel. After Brent crude oil rebounded to $65 per barrel last Thursday, prices have been fluctuating slightly around $64 per barrel this week. The biggest positive news this week was the one-year halt to the economic conflict between the US and China; especially given the current environment of “oversupply,” this news undoubtedly has a significant impact on the stability of the global economy and oil demand. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s announcement on Wednesday of a further 25 basis point interest rate cut also helps boost the economic outlook.
Currently, the international crude oil market is awaiting the results of the latest OPEC+ meeting, which will determine the production
increase plan for December and the production arrangements for the first quarter of next year. Overall, crude oil prices face significant downward pressure.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20251024-1030 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20251024-1030 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20251024-1030 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20251024-1030 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20251024-1030 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittent |
|
20251024-1030 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20251024-1030 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20251024-1030 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20251024-1030 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20251024-1030 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20251024-1030 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The paraffin wax market saw a slight decline this week, with national inventory rising to 7,000 tons.
4. Market demand
November marks the start of the traditional off-season for paraffin wax sales, leading to a decrease in demand.
5. Industry analysis overview
Industry Analysis Overview: This week, PetroChina raised the list price of all its semi-refined and crude paraffin wax products by 50
yuan/ton. This move addresses the current low inventory situation and demonstrates the market dominance of its semi-refined and crude paraffin wax products. Correspondingly, Sinopec flexibly adjusted its list price by 50 yuan/ton for only some products based on the inventory levels of its individual refineries.
The root cause of this adjustment remains low inventory. With the arrival of November, the paraffin wax market will gradually enter the traditional off-season. It is said that PetroChina may arrange production cuts at Daqing Petrochemical based on the overall demand situation this year. Currently, the average price of paraffin wax is almost at its lowest level since 2025, suggesting that PetroChina and Sinopec’s current market strategy aims for a smooth transition to 2026.
6. Price expectations
Paraffin wax prices are expected to remain stable in the near term, with the possibility of slight, flexible increases. However, with the arrival of the traditional off-season, downward pressure on paraffin wax prices is increasing. Therefore, even if production is reduced in Daqing, the likelihood of a significant price increase is relatively low.