20251117~20251123 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average international crude oil price rose slightly during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $64.07 per barrel. After reaching a peak of $65 per barrel last Friday, Brent crude oil prices fluctuated downwards this week, falling to $62 per barrel on Thursday and even further to $61.26 per barrel on Friday. The most noteworthy event this week was the 28-point peace plan jointly drafted by the US and Russia based on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although these terms have long been viewed by Ukrainian supporters as tantamount to surrender, and the likelihood of Ukraine fully accepting them is extremely low, the mere suggestion to end the conflict has already reduced the war risk premium, as an end to the war could allow
Russia to supply more oil to the global market. With the resumption of loading at major Russian export hubs, coupled with the additional supply from the peace plan, a further decline in international oil prices this week was inevitable.

However, next week, the US government’s sanctions against Russia’s two major crude oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, will officially
take effect, potentially affecting up to 7.4 million barrels per day of crude oil supply.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Lanzhou have stopped production, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period

Factory

Status

20251114-1120

Daqing Pec

Normal

20251114-1120

Daqing Ref & Che

Normal

20251114-1120

Dalian Pec

Closed and Relocating

20251114-1120

Fushun Pec

Normal

20251114-1120

Lanzhou Pec

Suspended

20251114-1120

Jingmen Pec

Normal

20251114-1120

Gaoqiao Pec

Normal

20251114-1120

Maoming Pec

Suspended

20251114-1120

Jinan Ref & Che

Normal

20251114-1120

Nanyang Pec

Normal

20251114-1120

Panjing Beiran

Normal

 

3. Stock

The paraffin market was sluggish this week, with national inventory currently at 12,000 tons.

4. Market demand

November is traditionally a slow season for paraffin wax sales, with demand starting to decline.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, paraffin wax prices remained stable. November is traditionally a slow season for paraffin wax sales, and this trend will
continue until after the Spring Festival. Based on past experience, demand for high-melting-point paraffin wax grades decreases in winter, while demand for low-melting-point grades increases.

6. Price expectations

Recently, paraffin wax prices have remained stable, with the possibility of flexible adjustments. However, with the arrival of the traditional slow season, downward pressure on paraffin wax prices is increasing.

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