20251208~20251214 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average international crude oil price fell slightly during this period, with Brent crude averaging $62.33 per barrel. International oil prices saw a significant drop this week, with Brent crude falling from a high of approximately $64 per barrel to a low of approximately $60 per barrel. The biggest concern remains the potential for a “super-supply glut” in 2026, a warning issued Tuesday by global commodities trading giant Trafigura.

The International Energy Agency previously predicted a record surplus of over 4 million barrels per day in the oil market next year,
equivalent to 4% of global consumption. The average forecast from five major investment banks indicates a surplus of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day in the global oil market next year due to global production exceeding demand growth.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Lanzhou have stopped production, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20251205-1211	Daqing Pec	Normal
20251205-1211	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20251205-1211	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20251205-1211	Fushun Pec	Normal
20251205-1211	Lanzhou Pec	Suspended
20251205-1211	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20251205-1211	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20251205-1211	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20251205-1211	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20251205-1211	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20251205-1211	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The paraffin wax market was generally stable this week, with national inventory rising to 16,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Currently, it is the traditional off-season for paraffin wax sales, with low demand.

5. Industry analysis overview

Paraffin wax prices remained largely unchanged this week, with only the Gaoqiao Refinery slightly raising its list prices for its 52# and 54# paraffin wax grades. The previous price reduction of 200-300 yuan/ton seems excessive.

Overall, paraffin wax prices are mainly stable, but some distributors are intentionally compressing their profit margins to meet sales
targets..

6. Price expectations

Recently, paraffin wax prices are expected to remain stable, but flexible adjustments are possible, and downward pressure on paraffin wax prices is increasing.