20251215~20251221 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil fell by more than $2 per barrel during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $60.02 per barrel. The most noteworthy news this week was the “key progress” in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations—Ukraine proactively offered to withdraw from NATO membership during the Berlin talks. This is seen as a significant concession, directly leading to a reduction in the already limited geopolitical risk premium.

Although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates and the situation in Venezuela is tense, crude oil prices will remain low in the short
term due to the poor global economic environment and expectations of oversupply in the first quarter of 2026.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Lanzhou have stopped production, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20251212-1218	Daqing Pec	Normal
20251212-1218	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20251212-1218	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20251212-1218	Fushun Pec	Normal
20251212-1218	Lanzhou Pec	Suspended
20251212-1218	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20251212-1218	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20251212-1218	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20251212-1218	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20251212-1218	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20251212-1218	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The paraffin wax market was generally flat this week, with national inventory currently remaining at 15,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Currently, it is the traditional off-season for paraffin wax sales, with low demand.

5. Industry analysis overview

Paraffin wax prices finally saw a decline this week. PetroChina adopted a “price protection” strategy, while Sinopec’s listed prices
for paraffin wax products generally decreased by 100-200 yuan/ton. Based on past experience, the paraffin wax market is likely to enter a downward cycle, with prices remaining stable with a slight decline, continuing until the Spring Festival.

6. Price expectations

With recent paraffin wax prices remaining stable with a slight decline, the paraffin wax market is likely to enter a downward cycle.