The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil surged by approximately $3 per barrel during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $64.59 per barrel. This week, influenced by US President Trump’s military discussions regarding Greenland and Iran, geopolitical risks increased sharply, causing international crude oil prices to rise from $60 per barrel to $66 per barrel. However, with the release of news indicating easing tensions, oil prices fell back to around $63 per barrel. While the recent rise in international oil prices is reasonable, the US’s forceful escalation of geopolitical conflicts may lead to significant short-term price fluctuations.
The basic assessment of the international crude oil market remains unchanged: a short-term rise is possible, but the long-term trend,
influenced by “oversupply,” suggests a higher probability of a decline.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20260109-0115 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20260109-0115 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20260109-0115 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20260109-0115 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20260109-0115 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20260109-0115 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20260109-0115 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20260109-0115 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20260109-0115 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20260109-0115 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20260109-0115 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The paraffin market rebounded this week, and the national inventory has now dropped to 13,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Due to the significant drop in paraffin wax prices last week, demand for paraffin wax was strong this week, with many customers immediately replenishing their stocks upon receiving the new quotes.
5. Industry analysis overview
After a sharp price drop, paraffin wax prices remained unchanged this week. Market reaction indicates that many end-users chose to purchase immediately, while traders, considering the possibility of further price declines, prioritized meeting sales targets, resulting in smaller profit margins. Refineries currently have low inventory levels and face minimal sales pressure.
6. Price expectations
Next week, paraffin wax prices are expected to remain stable or see slight decreases, the paraffin wax market is in a downward cycle.