The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average international crude oil price remained basically flat during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $68.56 per barrel. News this week regarding US-Iran negotiations indicated that a final agreement had not yet been reached on the nuclear weapons issue, putting the market on edge and causing Brent crude oil prices to surge again to over $70 per barrel. Some media outlets even reported that Washington was considering seizing tankers carrying Iranian crude oil, but this has not been confirmed by Washington.
It is worth noting that Brent crude oil prices quickly fell back to $67 per barrel on Thursday. Currently, its trading range is around $68 per barrel, which is considered high given the “oversupply” fundamentals.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20260206-0212 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20260206-0212 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20260206-0212 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20260206-0212 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20260206-0212 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20260206-0212 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20260206-0212 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20260206-0212 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20260206-0212 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20260206-0212 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20260206-0212 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
Currently, national inventory is approximately 0.6 million tons. Demand is low during the Spring Festival, and national production remains unchanged, suggesting an increase in inventory at PetroChina’s forward storage facilities.
4. Market demand
This week, end-user demand was extremely low due to logistical disruptions.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, paraffin wax prices remained stable. Of particular note is that despite the near-total halt in logistics due to the approaching
Spring Festival, national inventory decreased instead of increasing. The paraffin wax market is currently still in a downward cycle. While this inventory decrease may be due to PetroChina absorbing existing stock at its forward storage facilities, considering international oil price trends, this downward cycle may end earlier than expected after the Spring Festival..
6. Price expectations
Next week is the Spring Festival period. Based on the current market conditions, downstream businesses will gradually return to the market after the holiday, and market demand will gradually increase. Paraffin wax prices are expected to remain stable, with the possibility of flexible price increases.