The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil surged by approximately $3 per barrel during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $71.03 per barrel. Oil prices fluctuated at a high level of $71 per barrel throughout the week, clearly reflecting investor concerns about the situation in the Middle East, especially with Brent crude oil prices exceeding $73.5 per barrel on Friday. Following announcements of evacuations by various countries, on Saturday, February 28th, the United States and Israel launched a surprise, decapitation strike against Iran, and media reports indicated that Iran’s supreme leader had been killed.
Given the current situation, a short-term surge in oil prices is inevitable due to the Middle East situation. Combined with previous war risk premiums, the peak oil price could rise by approximately $10 per barrel.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20260220-0226 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20260220-0226 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20260220-0226 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20260220-0226 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20260220-0226 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20260220-0226 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20260220-0226 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20260220-0226 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20260220-0226 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20260220-0226 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20260220-0226 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
Currently, national inventory is approximately 7,300 tons, a slight increase during the Spring Festival.
4. Market demand
This week is the first working week after the Spring Festival. Due to the gradual recovery of logistics, end-user demand is not high.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week is the first working week after the Spring Festival. Paraffin wax prices across the country generally rose by 50-100 yuan/ton.
PetroChina, in particular, raised prices twice in one week, with the second increase being an emergency announcement on Sunday. With the continuous rise in international oil prices and current low inventory levels, it is highly likely that this downward cycle has ended ahead of schedule, and paraffin wax prices are expected to rise slowly in the coming weeks.
6. Price expectations
Given PetroChina’s emergency price adjustment on Sunday, Sinopec is likely to follow suit with a slight increase next week.