The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil surged by approximately $15 per barrel during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $94.38 per barrel. As the situation in the Middle East escalated, Brent oil prices briefly soared to $119 per barrel. However, compared to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict four years ago, the market seems to have adopted a relatively milder outlook. A trading range of $90 per barrel is clearly insufficient to account for the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz—its impact on international crude oil will far exceed that of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, affecting a quarter of global crude oil supply. With Iran’s continued retaliation, the trading range for international oil prices is expected to rise further.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, Lanzhou produces intermittently and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20260306-0312 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20260306-0312 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20260306-0312 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20260306-0312 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20260306-0312 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittently |
|
20260306-0312 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20260306-0312 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20260306-0312 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20260306-0312 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20260306-0312 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20260306-0312 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
Currently, national inventory is approximately 0.9 million tons, with signs of Sinopec stockpiling.
4. Market demand
Terminal demand was strong this week, with markets in various regions experiencing robust activity.
5. Industry analysis overview
With rising oil prices, paraffin wax prices also saw consecutive increases this week, both in frequency and magnitude, which is quite rare. Sinopec raised prices by approximately 800 yuan/ton, while PetroChina raised them by approximately 400 yuan/ton. Simultaneously, the markup by traders in various regions increased from 100 yuan/ton to 200-500 yuan/ton. It is worth noting that Sinopec seems to be intentionally increasing its inventory (including molded paraffin wax and unmolded wax), leading to an exceptionally tight supply of some product types.
However, the current average price of paraffin wax has not yet reached its highest level in recent years, with a price difference of nearly
800 yuan/ton, especially in markets like Daqing in Northeast China.
6. Price expectations
Paraffin wax prices are expected to rise in the coming weeks. Currently, paraffin wax prices are at a low to medium level, and there may be another 800 yuan/ton of upward potential before May 1st.