20240916~20240922 paraffin market analysis of China 

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price rebounded by 2 US dollars, and the average price of Brent crude oil was 73.33 US dollars per barrel. It is obvious that the stimulus effect of the 50 basis point interest rate cut is still very large. But overall, market sentiment remains cautious, mainly due to the weakening global demand expectations. The current economic data of both China and the United States are not ideal, especially China’s current oil demand is far below market expectations. Although the Fed’s interest rate cut policy will continue to stimulate demand in the future, the current market mentality is cautiously optimistic in the
short term, so the international oil price is likely to fluctuate sideways.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Lanzhou has stopped production and the rest are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20240916—0922	Daqing Pec	Normal
20240916—0922	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20240916—0922	Dalian Pec	Normal
20240916—0922	Fushun Pec	Normal
20240916—0922	Lanzhou Pec	Suspended
20240916—0922	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20240916—0922	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20240916—0922	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20240916—0922	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20240916—0922	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20240916—0922	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

Paraffin prices remained unchanged this week, shipments decreased, and domestic remaining inventory increased to 14,000
tons.

4. Market demand

Downstream companies purchase goods on demand. Based on past experience, export demand is relatively high in September
and October.

5. Industry analysis overview

Recently, the price of Fischer-Tropsch wax, a similar product to paraffin wax, has been continuously reduced, and the trading pressure of paraffin wax has increased. Currently, most traders have begun to reduce their profit margins, and it is expected that the price of paraffin wax will remain stable in the future.

6. Price expectations

The price of paraffin wax will remain stable in the coming months, with no expectation of price increase.