20240923~20240929 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

 1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, international crude oil prices remained basically flat, with the average price of Brent crude oil
at $73.23 per barrel. Although the stimulus effect of the Fed’s interest rate cut is still there, OPEC+ announced on September 26 that it would cancel its production cuts in December as planned. In addition, Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 per barrel for crude oil and increase production to maintain its share. Therefore, at present, the double negative factors of OPEC+’s production increase and weak global demand make it inevitable that oil prices will fall. The only variable is the current
geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Although the new Iranian president is constantly showing weakness to the United States, as the conflict between Israel and Lebanon continues to escalate, once it involves the security of trade in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may soar in the short term.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Lanzhou has stopped production and the rest are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20240923—0929	Daqing Pec	Normal
20240923—0929	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20240923—0929	Dalian Pec	Normal
20240923—0929	Fushun Pec	Normal
20240923—0929	Lanzhou Pec	Suspended
20240923—0929	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20240923—0929	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20240923—0929	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20240923—0929	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20240923—0929	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20240923—0929	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

Paraffin prices remained unchanged this week, shipments decreased, and domestic remaining inventory increased to 16,000
tons.

4. Market demand

Demand decreased at the end of the month and all parties were in a wait-and-see mood.

5. Industry analysis overview

Currently, most traders have begun to reduce their profit margins, with some models even being sold below the listed price, and paraffin prices tend to fall.

6. Price expectations

The price of paraffin wax is generally stable in October, with no expectation of price increase, and it may also drop in price ahead of schedule.