The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price fell by about $3, with the average price of Brent crude oil at $75.89 per barrel. The core reason is still the lack of global crude oil demand. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) both lowered their forecasts for global oil demand in 2024 and 2025, even though data from the U.S. Energy Agency (EIA) this week showed that both crude oil and refined oil inventories fell.
Currently, crude oil prices are mainly controlled by geopolitical situations and global demand. The geopolitical situation mainly
depends on the competition among various forces in the Middle East, especially after the U.S. election, oil prices may rise and fall sharply with changes in U.S. policies. In terms of demand, it is difficult to judge the economic trends of China and the United States, while oil production has only increased and not decreased. It can be foreseen that “demand” will not be able to provide sufficient support for crude oil prices in the rest of 2024.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming Petrochemical has suspended production, Lanzhou Petrochemical is resuming work (output is gradually increasing), Dalian Petrochemical has a low output and will suspend production next week; the rest
of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20241011—1017 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20241011—1017 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20241011—1017 |
Dalian Pec |
Suspended next week |
|
20241011—1017 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20241011—1017 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Recovering |
|
20241011—1017 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20241011—1017 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20241011—1017 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20241011—1017 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20241011—1017 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20241011—1017 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
Paraffin inventories fell rapidly this week, and the current national inventory is about 21,000 tons.
4. Market demand
After experiencing a sharp drop of 400 yuan/ton for all models last week and a price increase for key models this week, all parties are no longer waiting and starting to purchase on demand.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, the overall paraffin price remained stable, but various refineries raised prices for some models to varying degrees, mainly
crude paraffin and fully refined models. At present, the listing price of crude paraffin in Daqing is slightly lower, while Jingmen has a greater advantage in fully refined paraffin.
6. Price expectations
In October, paraffin wax prices were mainly stable with no expectation of price increases. However, Jingmen Petrochemical currently has a huge cost advantage in fully refined models and there is a possibility of price increases.