20241021~20241027 paraffin market analysis of China 

The relevant information this week is as follows:

 1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price fell by about $2, and the average price of Brent crude oil was $74.55 per barrel. Under the condition that the situation in the Middle East is temporarily peaceful, this performance is in line with expectations. At present, if Israel’s so-called retaliatory actions do not lead to an escalation of the situation, Brent crude oil will fall below the $75 per barrel mark and approach $70 per barrel.

On October 26, Israel carried out a “precision strike” on Iranian military targets in retaliation for Iran’s previous attacks. Due to
the requirements of the United States, the Israeli army did not list Iranian crude oil-related facilities as targets this time, so it will not affect the global crude oil supply for the time being. However, this move will inevitably further aggravate the tension in the Middle East, and the impact on oil prices will be apparent next week.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20241018—1024	Daqing Pec	Normal
20241018—1024	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20241018—1024	Dalian Pec	Suspended
20241018—1024	Fushun Pec	Normal
20241018—1024	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20241018—1024	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20241018—1024	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20241018—1024	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20241018—1024	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20241018—1024	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20241018—1024	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

Dalian stopped production this week but the market conditions were good, paraffin inventories decreased, and the current national inventory is about 19,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Following last week’s start of on-demand purchasing by all parties, the paraffin market this week was relatively good due to capacity concerns caused by the production suspension in Dalian.

5. Industry analysis overview

The overall paraffin price remained stable this week, with only a small increase of 50 yuan/ton for a few types, including 58 full-scale
paraffin in the Northeast region, which increased by 50 yuan, and semi-refined paraffin from Jingmen Petrochemical, which increased by 50 yuan. However, the semi-refined and crude paraffin of the advantageous types in the Northeast region remained stable, while the fully refined types of the advantageous types of Jingmen Petrochemical remained stable. Analysts believe that this situation may be caused by export demand.

6. Price expectations

Paraffin wax prices were mainly stable in October, but export demand seems to be relatively strong, and a small increase in popular export models cannot be ruled out.