20241028~20241103 paraffin market analysis of China 

The relevant information this week is as follows:

 1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price fell by about US$2, and the average price of Brent crude oil was US$72.55 per barrel. It can be seen that Israel’s limited retaliation did not cause significant losses to Iran, nor did it make the situation in the Middle East tense enough to impact oil prices.

This week, US crude oil production reached 13.5 million barrels per day, a record high, further exacerbating the oversupply; while US non-farm employment growth in October almost stagnated, the economic downturn is bound to lead to a slowdown in crude oil demand. In response to the current downward pressure on oil prices, OPEC+ may consider postponing the production increase plan originally planned for December. At present, the biggest impact on next week’s oil prices may be the results of the US election and the policies advocated by the corresponding candidates.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20241025—1031	Daqing Pec	Normal
20241025—1031	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20241025—1031	Dalian Pec	Suspended
20241025—1031	Fushun Pec	Normal
20241025—1031	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20241025—1031	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20241025—1031	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20241025—1031	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20241025—1031	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20241025—1031	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20241025—1031	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

Paraffin inventories increased this week due to slower month-end trading, and national inventories are currently around 22,000 tons.

4. Market demand

The paraffin market was average this week, with the main focus at the end of the month on consuming inventory.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, Daqing, Lanzhou and Jingmen all significantly raised their product listing prices, with an increase of 100~200 yuan/ton, while other refineries’ listing prices remained unchanged. Comprehensive analysis shows that on October 8, these three refineries also dropped their product listing prices by 400~450 yuan/ton. Combined with the listing prices of other refineries, the product listing prices of these three refineries still have room for an increase of 200~300 yuan/ton, unless the market price of paraffin wax begins to fall across the board.

6. Price expectations

Currently paraffin wax inventory is low, and the popular models in different regions are different, especially the inventory of paraffin wax products in Northeast China is tight, so the price of paraffin wax may continue to rise in the short term. However, the current downward trend of international oil prices is obvious, which will cause the price of paraffin wax to start falling this month in the long run.