The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: International crude oil prices remained basically flat during this statistical period, with the average price of Brent crude oil being US$72.94 per barrel. The biggest event this week was that Europe and the United States relaxed restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US-made long-range firepower. Ukraine recently used US-made cruise missiles to attack Russian targets twice in a row; accordingly, Russia also used hypersonic medium-range ballistic missiles to attack a Ukrainian military facility and used it to deter NATO. In this case, the situation between Russia and Ukraine escalated sharply, causing concerns about crude oil supply, and oil prices also rose by about 3%. However, in the context of various market signals being bearish, this wave of oil price rises against the trend usually has a short-term impact period, and we need to continue to pay attention to the further development of the situation.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
Period | Factory | Status |
20241115—1121 | Daqing Pec | Normal |
20241115—1121 | Daqing Ref & Che | |
20241115—1121 | Dalian Pec | Suspended |
20241115—1121 | Fushun Pec | Normal |
20241115—1121 | Lanzhou Pec | Normal |
20241115—1121 | Jingmen Pec | Normal |
20241115—1121 | Gaoqiao Pec | Normal |
20241115—1121 | Maoming Pec | Suspended |
20241115—1121 | Jinan Ref & Che | Normal |
20241115—1121 | Nanyang Pec | Normal |
20241115—1121 | Panjing Beiran | Normal |
3. Stock
Paraffin inventories remained unchanged this week, with national inventories currently around 14,000 tons.
4. Market demand
The paraffin market was average this week, mainly driven by customers with routine needs in the downstream industry.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, paraffin prices finally ended their weekly rise and are at a higher level this year. Judging from the daily volume and inventory of major refineries, although the paraffin market is not as prosperous as in previous years, the supply and demand relationship is basically balanced due to the obvious reduction in production capacity this year and the fact that Dalian and Maoming have been shut down. Based on past experience and the current international oil price, paraffin prices will remain flat for a period of time and then enter a downward cycle.
6. Price expectations
The price of paraffin is currently high, and the international oil price is showing a clear downward trend, which will most likely cause the price of paraffin to start falling at the end of this month or next month.