20250113~20250119 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price rose by about $4, and the average price of Brent crude oil was $80.80 per barrel. In addition to the increase in international oil prices due to heating demand in Europe and the United States, the United States imposed the most severe sanctions on the Russian oil industry to date last Friday, which also caused oil prices to rise sharply. The targets of this sanction are two large Russian exporters, related insurance companies and more than 150 tankers. Citigroup said that up to 800,000 barrels of oil exports per day may be threatened. Although the actual loss in the end may be less than half of this figure, it is enough to shock the market.

However, with Trump’s coming to power, new oil production capacity will be released. Whether it is the current reserve capacity of OPEC+ or the increase in US production capacity due to Trump’s policy relaxation, the gap of 800,000 barrels per day will be easily eliminated. Brent oil prices also began to fall rapidly from a high of $83 per barrel this weekend.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20250110—0116	Daqing Pec	Normal
20250110—0116	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20250110—0116	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20250110—0116	Fushun Pec	Normal
20250110—0116	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20250110—0116	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20250110—0116	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20250110—0116	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20250110—0116	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20250110—0116	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20250110—0116	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

This week, the paraffin wax market maintained the same state as last week, with end users actively purchasing. Currently, the national inventory is about 8,000 tons.

4. Market demand

The paraffin wax market is good this week. End users are purchasing materials needed during the Spring Festival on demand, and logistics costs will gradually increase next week.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, paraffin prices have increased again on a large scale. PetroChina raised the price of all its products by 60 yuan/ton, while Sinopec has kept it unchanged for now, but is likely to follow suit next week. Currently, due to the suspension of production in Dalian, domestic paraffin production capacity has been severely restricted, while inventory has remained at an extremely low level, which has provided great support to paraffin prices.

6. Price expectations

Paraffin prices are expected to remain stable next week, with a possible slight increase, especially for products under Sinopec, which will increase by 50 yuan/ton following the pricing of PetroChina this week.