20250120~20250126 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price fell by about US$1.5, and the average price of Brent crude oil was US$79.50 per barrel. With Trump taking office as the new US President on January 20, he issued a series of executive orders, especially the declaration of a national energy emergency, the core of which is to drill and explore for oil, fill strategic reserves, and export US energy to the world. International oil prices have always fallen without exception, and given the potential production capacity that OPEC+ may release, concerns about overproduction in 2025 have been mentioned again. In the next 1-2 months, the downward pressure on international oil prices will be relatively large.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20250117—0123	Daqing Pec	Normal
20250117—0123	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20250117—0123	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20250117—0123	Fushun Pec	Normal
20250117—0123	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20250117—0123	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20250117—0123	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20250117—0123	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20250117—0123	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20250117—0123	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20250117—0123	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

This week, the paraffin market is mainly dominated by dealers stockpiling. This week is the last week before the Spring Festival, and end users have already completed production and procurement. Currently, the national inventory is about 8,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Currently, the price of paraffin wax is relatively strong. As the Gaoqiao and Jinan refineries will shut down for maintenance in March and April, there is a possibility of flexible price increases for popular models. Therefore, although terminal procurement is almost stagnant, traders are actively stockpiling goods.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, paraffin prices have increased again on a large scale. As expected last week, this week Sinopec increased all its paraffin products by 50-100 yuan/ton, and PetroChina increased all its paraffin products by 30 yuan/ton. Given that Gaoqiao and Jinan refineries plan to shut down for maintenance in March and April, it is likely that paraffin prices will be adjusted upwards flexibly.

6. Price expectations

Next week is the Spring Festival, and paraffin prices are expected to remain stable. However, considering the upcoming capacity reduction, paraffin prices may rise slightly. Although there will not be a large number of purchases, it is enough to indicate the future market trend.