The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: With the release of a series of policies by the new US President Trump, international oil prices have fallen for nearly two weeks. This week, the average price of Brent crude oil is US$75.56 per barrel, which has fallen back to the level of two months ago. The downward pressure on international oil prices mainly comes from 1) The tariff war initiated by the United States may lead to retaliatory trade protection, which will lead to a global economic downturn. 2) According to data from the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), the current surge in U.S. crude oil inventories has increased concerns about overcapacity. 3) Although the
United States has tried to vigorously sanction Iran and Russia’s crude oil exports, the United States’ own increased production capacity and the current idle production capacity of OPEC+ can quickly fill this gap.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250131-0206 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250131-0206 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250131-0206 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250131-0206 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20250131-0206 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20250131-0206 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250131-0206 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20250131-0206 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250131-0206 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20250131-0206 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250131-0206 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
This week is the first week after the Spring Festival, and commercial procurement has not yet been fully launched. Currently, national inventory has increased to 15,000 tons.
4. Market demand
As Gaoqiao and Jinan refineries will shut down for maintenance in March and April, there is a strong bullish sentiment on paraffin prices and there are many price inquiries.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, paraffin prices have increased again on a large scale. PetroChina and Sinopec have increased all their paraffin products by 100 yuan. Gaoqiao and Jinan refineries have announced plans to shut down for maintenance in March and April, and the situation of low oil prices and high paraffin prices has been supported to a certain extent. However, Gaoqiao and Jinan have limited production capacity, and the maintenance plans of several major refineries in Northeast China are what can really influence the situation.
6. Price expectations
As it is still the Spring Festival period, business activities are restricted and the price of paraffin wax is expected to remain stable. Judging from the increase in the price of paraffin wax this week, the price of paraffin wax will remain stable with a slight upward trend in the short term.