20250609~20250615 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price in this statistical cycle has soared by about US$3, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle is US$67.90 per barrel. Affected by Israel’s sudden military strike against Iran, Brent crude oil once exceeded US$78 per barrel. With the launch of Iran’s retaliatory actions, the powder keg of the Middle East may be detonated again, and the international crude oil price will once again usher in a high war risk premium. The instability in the Middle East in 2024 brought a risk premium of US$5-10 per barrel. If Iran is completely enraged and the Strait of Hormuz is closed or its 3.3 million barrels per day of production is restricted, then oil prices may soar to US$120-130 per barrel.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian, Jinan and Lanzhou have stopped production, while the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20250606-0612	Daqing Pec	Normal
20250606-0612	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20250606-0612	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20250606-0612	Fushun Pec	Normal
20250606-0612	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20250606-0612	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20250606-0612	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20250606-0612	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20250606-0612	Jinan Ref & Che	Suspended
20250606-0612	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20250606-0612	Panjing Beiran	Normal

3. Stock

The market was booming this week, with both end users and dealers purchasing aggressively, resulting in some models being in short supply. Currently, national inventories have dropped to 14,000 tons.

4. Market demand

The paraffin wax market has entered an upward cycle, and downstream companies are actively purchasing to reduce later purchasing costs.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, Sinopec and PetroChina have raised the listing prices of their paraffin products. Sinopec mainly raised the prices of key models, while PetroChina generally increased the prices. Judging from the current listing price situation, it is inevitable for Sinopec to raise the listing price again in order to balance the market structure, especially for high melting point paraffin models of 58° and above.

6. Price expectations

At present, the price of paraffin wax is mainly on the rise. Combined with the short-term upward trend of international oil prices, the listing price of paraffin wax is likely to increase by 50 yuan/ton next week.