The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price in this statistical cycle has soared by about US$8, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle is US$75.89 per barrel. The risk premium brought by the conflict between Israel and Iran to the international crude oil price has begun to break through US$10. On Sunday, as the United States launched a precision strike on three underground nuclear facilities in Iran, the possibility of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz has increased sharply. According to historical data, after Israel launched an air strike on Iran on June 13, Brent crude oil soared 4% in a single day; when the Iranian refinery was attacked on June 14, the oil price rose by 9% in a single day. This action is more powerful
and the market reaction may be more intense.
2. Production capacity
Among the major
production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Jinan Petrochemical
have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of
the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250613-0619 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250613-0619 |
Daqing Ref
& Che |
|
|
20250613-0619 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and
Relocating |
|
20250613-0619 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20250613-0619 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittent |
|
20250613-0619 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250613-0619 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20250613-0619 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250613-0619 |
Jinan Ref
& Che |
Suspended |
|
20250613-0619 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250613-0619 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The market was booming this week, with
both end users and dealers purchasing aggressively, resulting in some models
being in short supply. Currently, national inventories have dropped to 14,000
tons.
4. Market demand
The paraffin wax market has entered an
upward cycle, and downstream companies are actively purchasing.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Monday, Sinopec and PetroChina once again raised the listing
prices of their paraffin products, and most models are in short supply. It has
been confirmed that Fushun Refinery, which has the largest paraffin production
among refineries in China, will start maintenance on August 25 for a period of
two months; coupled with the current chaos in the Middle East, the possibility
of oil prices rising is high. Therefore, this wave of rising prices will most
likely continue until at least the end of August.
6. Price expectations
At present, the
price of paraffin wax is mainly stable with some increases. Combined with the
rising trend of international oil prices, the listing price of paraffin wax may
continue to rise by 50 yuan/ton next week, especially for Sinopec.