20250811~20250817 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, international crude oil prices continued to fall by approximately $1.50 per barrel this statistical period, with the cyclical average price of Brent crude oil at $66.36 per barrel. This week’s international oil price movements were primarily influenced by the bearish supply forecast released by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA warned that global oil supply appears to be “oversupplied,” especially after OPEC+ steadily increased production this year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 3 million barrel increase in inventories last week, far exceeding market expectations for a 900,000 barrel decrease, further exacerbating bearish sentiment on oil.

Geopolitically, traders are closely watching the progress of the summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska, which could lead to the United States easing sanctions on Moscow due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Overall, crude oil prices are currently facing significant downward pressure, particularly if Ukraine is invited to participate in trilateral talks between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20250808-0814	Daqing Pec	Normal
20250808-0814	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20250808-0814	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20250808-0814	Fushun Pec	Normal
20250808-0814	Lanzhou Pec	Intermittent
20250808-0814	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20250808-0814	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20250808-0814	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20250808-0814	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20250808-0814	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20250808-0814	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The market was relatively quiet this week, with traders and manufacturers adopting a wait-and-see attitude. National inventories have risen to 13,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Paraffin wax market demand is declining, prompting a wait-and-see approach.

5. Industry analysis overview

Paraffin wax prices remained unchanged this week, prompting a wait-and-see approach. The Fushun refinery will shut down for two months of maintenance next week, and the market will take one to two weeks to react.

6. Price expectations

Currently, paraffin wax prices are generally stable. The market for semi-refined paraffin wax is sluggish; the market for fully refined paraffin wax will remain stable due to the shutdown of the Fushun refinery, especially the medium and high melting point paraffin wax types.