The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average international crude oil price remained essentially flat this time, with Brent crude oil averaging $68.00 per barrel. However, the debate surrounding “geopolitical conflict” and “oversupply” has intensified. The dismal US August non-farm payroll data, in particular, has triggered concerns about weak employment and oil demand, coupled with news of a potential production increase at the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. This has caused the WIT crude oil price to plummet from $66 per barrel to $61 per barrel.
Major analysts have issued warnings of a year-end crude oil oversupply and have set $60 per barrel as a downward resistance level for Brent crude oil—even despite the escalating situation in the Red Sea caused by the Houthi attack on Israeli oil tankers this week and the recent large-scale attacks between Russia and Ukraine.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Fushun have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250829-0904 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250829-0904 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250829-0904 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250829-0904 |
Fushun Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250829-0904 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittent |
|
20250829-0904 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250829-0904 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20250829-0904 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250829-0904 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20250829-0904 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250829-0904 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The market was relatively quiet this week, with traders and manufacturers adopting a wait-and-see attitude. National inventories have risen to 16,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Paraffin wax market demand is declining, prompting a wait-and-see approach.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, PetroChina was the first to respond to the sluggish paraffin wax market, lowering the listed prices of all its products by 300 and 400 yuan/ton, respectively, for a total reduction of 700 yuan/ton. At Sinopec, only the Gaoqiao Refinery reduced prices for some of its products by 250-450 yuan. Other refiners have not yet adjusted, but from an overall market perspective, it’s only a matter of time before they follow suit.
Based on previous market performance, semi-refined paraffin wax will be the primary target of this round of adjustments; fully refined paraffin wax, particularly high-melting-point grades, will remain stable. Gaoqiao’s 64- and 66-grade grades did not see any price reductions this time.
6. Price expectations
The listed prices of Sinopec’s paraffin wax products are likely to decline. However, due to the limited inventory and variety, the actual transaction price may differ significantly from the listed price, especially for fully refined paraffin waxes with medium and high melting points.