The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average international crude oil price fell by approximately $1.50 per barrel this statistical period, with the average price of Brent crude oil at $66.35 per barrel. This week, international oil prices continued to rise from Monday to Wednesday, driven by positive news about a slowdown in OPEC+ production increases (an increase of 137,000 barrels per day in October). However, following the release of data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, which showed a 3.93 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, compared to expectations for a 1.9 million barrel decrease, international oil prices plummeted by over 2% on Thursday. Concerns about oversupply have once again fueled bearish market sentiment, especially with the traditional summer energy peak season having ended.
Currently, the market has shown little reaction to “geopolitical conflicts” but is relatively sensitive to events related to crude oil supply and demand. On Friday, Brent crude oil prices sharply rose from $65.71 to $68.17 per barrel following a drone attack on the port of Primorsk, a key energy hub in the Baltic Sea, Russia. Therefore, in the short term, the price of Brent crude oil may rise slightly due to sudden geopolitical conflicts, but “whether there is oversupply” will be the decisive factor in the international crude oil market for the rest of the year.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Fushun have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250905-0911 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250905-0911 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250905-0911 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250905-0911 |
Fushun Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250905-0911 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittent |
|
20250905-0911 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250905-0911 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20250905-0911 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250905-0911 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20250905-0911 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250905-0911 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The market was relatively quiet this week, with traders and manufacturers adopting a wait-and-see attitude. National inventories have risen to 18,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Paraffin wax market demand is declining, prompting a wait-and-see approach.
5. Industry analysis overview
As expected, Sinopec this week lowered the list prices of its paraffin wax products, following PetroChina’s price cuts last week. The
adjustments primarily affected existing products. Popular grades like the Jingmen refinery’s 58# fully refined and the Gaoqiao refinery’s 64/66# fully refined did not see price reductions, largely due to the market supply shortage caused by the Fushun refinery’s production suspension.
Overall, the downward trend in crude and semi-refined paraffin waxes has already begun, with significant reductions. However, due to the Fushun refinery’s production suspension, refined medium- and high-melting-point paraffin waxes are in relatively tight supply. While price reductions are inevitable, they are likely to be delayed.
6. Price expectations
The paraffin wax market is currently entering a downward cycle, and a price reduction is inevitable. However, the market is in short supply for fully refined paraffin waxes with medium and high melting points, and transaction prices are likely to remain high.