The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average international crude oil price rose slightly by approximately $1.3 per barrel this statistical period, with the cyclical average price of Brent crude oil at $67.66 per barrel. The most noteworthy event this week was the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. However, the dramatic outcome was that after the Fed officially announced the 25 basis point rate cut, international oil prices fell instead of rising.
The general interpretation is that the 25 basis point rate cut was within expectations, and the previous rise in international oil prices was
a response to this positive news. However, the real problem lies in the fact that two more rate cuts are already confirmed this year, which has inevitably led investors to worry about the future economic situation. The decline in international oil prices also indicates that concerns about oversupply outweigh expectations that the Fed’s first rate cut of the year will stimulate increased consumption. Even though Ukraine and the EU have recently intensified their military and economic attacks on Russia, this has so far had no significant impact on Russian crude oil supply.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Fushun have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250912-0918 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250912-0918 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250912-0918 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250912-0918 |
Fushun Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250912-0918 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittent |
|
20250912-0918 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250912-0918 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20250912-0918 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250912-0918 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20250912-0918 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250912-0918 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The paraffin wax market has seen some recovery this week, driven by a positive price reduction. National inventories have now fallen to 14,000 tons.
4. Market demand
September and October are traditionally peak seasons for paraffin wax sales, leading to increased market demand.
5. Industry analysis overview
Paraffin wax prices remained stable this week, with increased demand for semi-refined grades, while fully refined supplies, particularly for high-melting-point grades, remain tight.
However, it is interesting to note that the Gaoqiao and Jingmen refineries are currently offering discounts of 300 to 600 yuan/ton (relative to the list price) to buyers with large takeout volumes. This contrasts with PetroChina’s general price adjustments for its paraffin wax products. This appears to be a compromise made by Sinopec to maintain market balance. However, judging by the list price alone, paraffin wax prices still have room to fall, though the timing is limited by the “Golden September and Silver October” shopping season.
6. Price expectations
After this week’s price adjustments, paraffin wax prices are currently generally stable, but Sinopec may transition its “large buyer discounts” into list price reductions.