20251027~20251102 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil rose by approximately $2.3 per barrel during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $65.52 per barrel. After Brent crude oil rebounded to $65 per barrel last Thursday, prices have been fluctuating slightly around $64 per barrel this week. The biggest positive news this week was the one-year halt to the economic conflict between the US and China; especially given the current environment of “oversupply,” this news undoubtedly has a significant impact on the stability of the global economy and oil demand. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s announcement on Wednesday of a further 25 basis point interest rate cut also helps boost the economic outlook.

Currently, the international crude oil market is awaiting the results of the latest OPEC+ meeting, which will determine the production
increase plan for December and the production arrangements for the first quarter of next year. Overall, crude oil prices face significant downward pressure.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period

Factory

Status

20251024-1030

Daqing Pec

Normal

20251024-1030

Daqing Ref & Che

Normal

20251024-1030

Dalian Pec

Closed and Relocating

20251024-1030

Fushun Pec

Normal

20251024-1030

Lanzhou Pec

Intermittent

20251024-1030

Jingmen Pec

Normal

20251024-1030

Gaoqiao Pec

Normal

20251024-1030

Maoming Pec

Suspended

20251024-1030

Jinan Ref & Che

Normal

20251024-1030

Nanyang Pec

Normal

20251024-1030

Panjing Beiran

Normal

 

3. Stock

The paraffin wax market saw a slight decline this week, with national inventory rising to 7,000 tons.

4. Market demand

November marks the start of the traditional off-season for paraffin wax sales, leading to a decrease in demand.

5. Industry analysis overview

Industry Analysis Overview: This week, PetroChina raised the list price of all its semi-refined and crude paraffin wax products by 50
yuan/ton. This move addresses the current low inventory situation and demonstrates the market dominance of its semi-refined and crude paraffin wax products. Correspondingly, Sinopec flexibly adjusted its list price by 50 yuan/ton for only some products based on the inventory levels of its individual refineries.

The root cause of this adjustment remains low inventory. With the arrival of November, the paraffin wax market will gradually enter the traditional off-season. It is said that PetroChina may arrange production cuts at Daqing Petrochemical based on the overall demand situation this year. Currently, the average price of paraffin wax is almost at its lowest level since 2025, suggesting that PetroChina and Sinopec’s current market strategy aims for a smooth transition to 2026.

6. Price expectations

Paraffin wax prices are expected to remain stable in the near term, with the possibility of slight, flexible increases. However, with the arrival of the traditional off-season, downward pressure on paraffin wax prices is increasing. Therefore, even if production is reduced in Daqing, the likelihood of a significant price increase is relatively low.

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