The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil fell slightly during this period, with the average price of Brent crude oil at $64.26 per barrel. This week, international oil prices continued to fluctuate slightly around $64 per barrel. Initially, prices rose due to positive news from the OPEC+ meeting regarding a slight increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December and a halt to production increases in the first quarter of 2026. However, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed a surge of 5.2 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, far exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 603,000-barrel increase, causing some panic about “oversupply” and leading to a slight decline in the average price over the period.
OPEC+’s decision to halt production increases in the first quarter of 2026 indirectly confirms the objective fact of “oversupply,” further strengthening expectations of a downward trend in international oil prices.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Lanzhou have stopped production, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20251031-1106 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20251031-1106 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20251031-1106 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20251031-1106 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20251031-1106 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Suspended |
|
20251031-1106 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20251031-1106 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20251031-1106 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20251031-1106 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20251031-1106 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20251031-1106 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The paraffin wax market saw a slight decline this week, with national inventory rising to 11,000 tons.
4. Market demand
November marks the start of the traditional off-season for paraffin wax sales, leading to a decrease in demand.
5. Industry analysis overview
Paraffin wax prices remained stable this week. With the arrival of November, the paraffin wax market is gradually entering its traditional off-season, and national inventory has surged from 7,000 tons last week to 11,000 tons. It is reported that PetroChina may arrange production cuts at its Daqing refinery based on overall demand this year, while its Fushun refinery, the largest in the country, will maintain normal production. Sinopec’s Jingmen and Gaoqiao refineries have maintained low inventory levels.
Currently, the average price of paraffin wax is almost at its lowest level since 2025, indicating that PetroChina and Sinopec’s current market strategy is a smooth transition to 2026.
6. Price expectations
Paraffin wax prices have remained stable recently, with the possibility of slight, flexible increases. However, with the arrival of the traditional off-season, downward pressure on paraffin wax prices is increasing. Therefore, even if production is reduced in Daqing, the possibility of a significant price increase is small, and with the end of pre-Christmas stockpiling, paraffin wax prices have begun to decline.