20251222~20251228 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil rose by approximately $1.8 per barrel during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $61.79 per barrel. This week is Christmas week, and international oil prices surged to $62 per barrel from Monday to Wednesday before plummeting back to $60 per barrel on Friday. In terms of trading volume, most traders are bullish recently, likely due to the increasingly tense situation in Venezuela and the still uncertain Russia-Ukraine conflict, which are tightening global oil supply and raising geopolitical premiums, thus supporting short-term price increases.

However, the current situation of “supply exceeding demand” remains one of the decisive forces driving oil prices in early 2026, a point emphasized in the latest December EIA/IEA/OPEC monthly reports.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Lanzhou have stopped production, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20251219-1225	Daqing Pec	Normal
20251219-1225	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20251219-1225	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20251219-1225	Fushun Pec	Normal
20251219-1225	Lanzhou Pec	Suspended
20251219-1225	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20251219-1225	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20251219-1225	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20251219-1225	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20251219-1225	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20251219-1225	Panjing Beiran	Normal

3. Stock

The paraffin wax market was generally flat this week, with national inventory rising slightly to 16,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Currently, it is the traditional off-season for paraffin wax sales, with low demand.

5. Industry analysis overview

Paraffin wax prices remained stable this week, but due to PetroChina’s “Rebate sales” policy, the actual price will likely be 50-200
yuan/ton lower after the rebate is implemented. Correspondingly, Sinopec may refer to PetroChina’s rebate policy and also reduce prices for its paraffin wax products.

6. Price expectations

A price reduction for paraffin wax is highly likely in the near future, and the paraffin wax market is likely to enter a downward cycle.