20260105~20260111 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average international crude oil price remained basically flat during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $61.03 per barrel. Oil prices were expected to rise slightly this week, but US President Trump’s statement on Tuesday, the 6th, that Venezuela would transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of “sanctioned high-quality oil” to the US triggered market concerns about increased supply, causing oil prices to plummet by about $2 per barrel that day. Fortunately, the market was resilient, and Brent crude oil rebounded by $3 per barrel on Thursday, the 8th, to $63 per barrel.

The basic assessment of the international crude oil market remains unchanged: a short-term rise is still possible, but the long-term
trend, influenced by “oversupply,” makes a decline more likely.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20260102-0108	Daqing Pec	Normal
20260102-0108	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20260102-0108	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20260102-0108	Fushun Pec	Normal
20260102-0108	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20260102-0108	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20260102-0108	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20260102-0108	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20260102-0108	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20260102-0108	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20260102-0108	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The paraffin market rebounded this week, and the national inventory has now dropped to 16,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Due to the significant drop in paraffin wax prices last week, demand for paraffin wax was strong this week, with many customers immediately replenishing their stocks upon receiving the new quotes.

5. Industry analysis overview

After a sharp price drop, paraffin wax prices remained unchanged this week. Market reaction indicates that many end-users chose to purchase immediately, while traders, considering the possibility of further price declines, prioritized meeting sales targets, resulting in smaller profit margins.

6. Price expectations

Next week, paraffin wax prices are expected to remain stable or see slight decreases, the paraffin wax market is in a downward cycle.