20260126~20260201 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil surged by approximately $3 per barrel during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $67.47 per barrel. This week, due to the escalating US threats of military or political intervention against Iran and Cuba, particularly the potential emergency blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important maritime transport routes for oil and natural gas—Brent crude oil futures prices briefly jumped by over $6 per barrel. However, considering the recent statements from the US and Israel, and Iran’s past cautious approach to the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, this surge is likely a sudden, impulsive event.

Currently, Brent crude oil has reached a relatively high level of $70 per barrel; however, the market fundamentals of “oversupply” in crude oil seem insufficient to support this price. Therefore, in the near term, international crude oil prices may gradually correct back to a level of fluctuation around $64 per barrel after receiving some news of “ease in the situation.”

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20260123-0129	Daqing Pec	Normal
20260123-0129	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20260123-0129	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20260123-0129	Fushun Pec	Normal
20260123-0129	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20260123-0129	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20260123-0129	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20260123-0129	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20260123-0129	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20260123-0129	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20260123-0129	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The paraffin market rebounded this week, and the national inventory has now dropped to 7,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Due to the significant drop in paraffin wax prices last week, demand for paraffin wax was strong this week, with many customers immediately replenishing their stocks upon receiving the new quotes.

5. Industry analysis overview

Paraffin prices remained stable this week, but inventories declined significantly, especially at several refineries under PetroChina in
Northeast China. Based on current inventory data, a substantial price reduction before the Spring Festival is unlikely. Instead, for popular models, there may be flexible price increases.

6. Price expectations

Next week, paraffin wax prices are expected to remain stable, with some popular models potentially seeing flexible price increases. However, the paraffin wax market is still in a downward cycle.