The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil rose slightly by about $0.5 per barrel this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $68.27 per barrel. International crude oil prices generally declined this week, but due to concerns about a potential US military strike against Iran and Iranian retaliatory measures involving oil shipping routes, a war risk premium has formed in international oil prices. Currently, US and Iranian representatives are meeting in Oman, with the US attempting to include Iran’s missile arsenal in the negotiations, while Iran insists on discussing only its nuclear program. This disagreement will undoubtedly continue to support oil prices.
This week, Brent crude oil prices began to fall from their high of $68 per barrel. Considering previous oil price movements and OPEC+’s further emphasis on not increasing oil production in March, international oil prices are expected to gradually correct back to a level around $64 per barrel.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20260130-0205 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20260130-0205 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20260130-0205 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20260130-0205 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20260130-0205 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20260130-0205 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20260130-0205 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20260130-0205 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20260130-0205 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20260130-0205 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20260130-0205 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The paraffin wax market remained hot this week, with current national inventory at 0.7 million tons.
4. Market demand
Due to the significant drop in paraffin wax prices last week, demand for paraffin wax was strong this week, with many customers immediately replenishing their stocks upon receiving the new quotes.
5. Industry analysis overview
Paraffin wax prices remained largely stable this week, with refineries maintaining low inventory levels. The Jingmen refinery flexibly raised its paraffin wax prices by 50 yuan/ton. Market feedback on transaction prices indicates increased profit margins for major traders, especially for low- and medium-melting-point grades. However, due to the upcoming Spring Festival next week and the near-shutdown of logistics, the price increase had little impact on actual transactions, appearing more like a market-building measure.
6. Price expectations
Paraffin prices are expected to remain stable next week. While there may be some flexible price increases for popular models, this will have little practical significance due to logistics disruptions caused by the Spring Festival.