The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil surged by approximately $10 per barrel during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $104.56 per barrel. This Friday, US President Trump stated to the media at the White House that he “has no intention of reaching a ceasefire agreement with Iran” and emphasized that military operations will continue. This statement undoubtedly further fueled market expectations of an escalation of the conflict and even ground military action. Brent crude oil prices have now reached a high of nearly $120 per barrel, and a price of $130 per barrel seems increasingly likely.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Dalian have stopped production, Lanzhou produces intermittently and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
Period | Factory | Status |
20260313-0319 | Daqing Pec | Normal |
20260313-0319 | Daqing Ref & Che | |
20260313-0319 | Dalian Pec | Closed and Relocating |
20260313-0319 | Fushun Pec | Normal |
20260313-0319 | Lanzhou Pec | Intermittently |
20260313-0319 | Jingmen Pec | Normal |
20260313-0319 | Gaoqiao Pec | Normal |
20260313-0319 | Maoming Pec | Suspended |
20260313-0319 | Jinan Ref & Che | Normal |
20260313-0319 | Nanyang Pec | Normal |
20260313-0319 | Panjing Beiran | Normal |
3. Stock
Currently, the national inventory is about 10,000 tons, and with prices high, transactions are becoming increasingly cautious.
4. Market demand
This week, end-user demand was strong, but due to the high price of paraffin wax, many end-users and traders adopted a wait-and-see attitude, with many inquiries but cautious transactions.
5. Industry analysis overview
As oil prices climb, paraffin wax prices continued to rise this week, with Sinopec increasing prices by a cumulative 450 yuan/ton and
PetroChina by 650 yuan/ton. Currently, paraffin wax prices have reached a mid-level, still about 500-700 yuan/ton away from the highs seen since 2023.
However, judging from market transactions, downstream parties seem concerned about current prices, resulting in a decrease in transaction volume. Correspondingly, the markup by primary traders has decreased, returning to a level of 100-200 yuan/ton.
6. Price expectations
Paraffin wax prices are expected to continue rising next week. Currently at a mid-level, prices may see an increase of 500-700 yuan/ton before May 1st.