The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil rose slightly by about $1.5 per barrel during this period, with the average price of Brent crude oil at $98.26 per barrel. International oil prices had previously plummeted to $86.09 per barrel last Friday, but as negotiations between the US and Iran reached a stalemate, both sides began to display tougher stances, and tensions escalated again. As a result, oil prices showed a weekly upward trend, surging to $106 per barrel at one point.
Currently, if the current situation in the Middle East remains deadlocked, the lowest possible fluctuation center for international oil prices is around $85 per barrel, while the highest could be around $100 per barrel.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries nationwide, Maoming and Dalian have suspended production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the remaining refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20260417-0423 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20260417-0423 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20260417-0423 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20260417-0423 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20260417-0423 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittently |
|
20260417-0423 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20260417-0423 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20260417-0423 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20260417-0423 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20260417-0423 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20260417-0423 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
Currently, national inventory is approximately 12,000 tons, and the market is sluggish.
4. Market demand
It is currently the traditional off-season for the market, and with paraffin wax prices currently high, demand is extremely low.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, to cope with the sales pressure of the off-season and to balance the market, Sinopec took the lead in lowering the list price of its paraffin wax products by 150-300 yuan/ton. This move allows it to gain a cost advantage in southern China. Many distributors are worried that PetroChina may follow suit with price reductions, leading to a downward cycle in the paraffin wax market. However, considering the current international crude oil prices and national paraffin wax inventory, refineries have little incentive to lower
paraffin wax prices.
Currently, traders are trying to meet sales targets, especially as Sinopec’s price reductions have forced PetroChina traders to sell at a loss.
6. Price expectations
Next week, paraffin wax prices are expected to remain stable. Although the paraffin wax market is in the off-season and prices are high, the possibility of entering a downward cycle before May 1st is low.