The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil fell by approximately $5 per barrel during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $106.76 per barrel. This week, according to Xinhua News Agency citing Middle Eastern media reports, Iran and the United States have reached a consensus on easing the US maritime blockade in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported on May 7 that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has designated two shipping lanes for permitted vessels. Affected by this news, international oil prices fell from a low of $114 per barrel to a low of $96 per barrel this week, and the downward trend continues.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries nationwide, Maoming and Dalian have suspended production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the remaining refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20260501-0507 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20260501-0507 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20260501-0507 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20260501-0507 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20260501-0507 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittently |
|
20260501-0507 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20260501-0507 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20260501-0507 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20260501-0507 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20260501-0507 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20260501-0507 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
Affected by the May Day holiday, national inventory increased significantly to 23,000 tons, and the market remained sluggish.
4. Market demand
Currently, it is the traditional off-season for the market, and with paraffin wax prices currently high, demand is extremely low.
5. Industry analysis overview
After the May Day holiday this week, PetroChina began implementing new listed prices after a reduction of 350-500 yuan/ton. As expected, Sinopec also followed suit with a price reduction; however, unlike expectations, Sinopec’s price reduction was larger, ranging from 400-600 yuan/ton. Industry insiders believe that, given the continued high volatility in oil prices, Sinopec’s larger-than-expected price reduction was intended to give traders some profit margin, which also means that the possibility of further price reductions this month is reduced—especially when inventory pressure is not high. In addition, there are reports that some refineries have plans to reduce production to alleviate high production costs and the off-season market.
6. Price expectations
Next week, paraffin wax prices are expected to remain stable. Given the high oil prices, it is difficult to determine whether the paraffin wax market has entered a downward cycle.