The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil in this period plummeted again by about $6 per barrel, with the average price of Brent crude oil at $96.73 per barrel. Negotiations between Iran and the United States continued this week. Although minor actions and propaganda wars continued between the two sides, the overall situation in the Middle East gradually eased. With Iran temporarily opening the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices plummeted by more than $10 per barrel on Friday, briefly falling to $86.09 per barrel. Based on the pre-war oil price level of $65 per barrel, plus a war risk premium of around $15 per barrel, before a renewed hot war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the oil price fluctuation center may tend towards $80-85 per barrel.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries nationwide, Maoming and Dalian have suspended production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the remaining refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20260410-0416 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20260410-0416 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20260410-0416 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20260410-0416 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20260410-0416 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Intermittently |
|
20260410-0416 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20260410-0416 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20260410-0416 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20260410-0416 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20260410-0416 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20260410-0416 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
Currently, national inventory is approximately 0.9 million tons, and the market is sluggish.
4. Market demand
It is currently the traditional off-season for the market, and with paraffin wax prices currently high, demand is extremely low.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week marks the beginning of the traditional off-season, with low demand and even more meager profit margins for traders. Next week, as we enter late April, traders may face negative profits in order to meet sales targets.
6. Price expectations
Next week, paraffin wax prices are expected to remain stable. Although the paraffin wax market is in its off-season and prices are high, a price drop before May 1st is unlikely.