20260406~20260412 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil plummeted by approximately $8 per barrel this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $102.43 per barrel. This week, international oil prices plunged after President Trump and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement on Tuesday evening and reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Although various news events and unforeseen circumstances continued to impact the relatively fragile peace, international oil prices, after falling to the $90+ per barrel level, lacked the momentum to strongly rebound to $100+ per barrel.

Currently, after 40 days of intense fighting, all parties involved need time to assess the situation and replenish their logistical supplies. Considering the strategic needs of the United States, Israel, and Iran, reaching a peace agreement that satisfies all parties in the short term is extremely difficult. Therefore, the situation in the Middle East is likely to be protracted, and the war premium on international oil prices will also be prolonged.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries nationwide, Maoming and Dalian have suspended production, Jingmen has temporarily suspended production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the remaining refineries are operating normally.

3. Stock

Currently, the national inventory is about 0.8 million tons, and with prices high, transactions are becoming increasingly cautious.

4. Market demand

End-user demand is shrinking, with most adopting a wait-and-see approach due to concerns about market capacity.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, PetroChina continued to raise its list price for paraffin products by 200 yuan/ton, while Sinopec maintained stability. Current paraffin prices have reached their highest level since 2023, leading to significant wait-and-see sentiment among all parties. On the one hand, compared to equivalent crude oil prices in 2022, paraffin prices still have room to rise by 1000 yuan/ton; on the other hand, the current domestic and international economic environment is declining, and all parties have limited capacity to bear the current prices. Looking at major trading markets, traders’ markup space has further narrowed, ranging between 0 and 100 yuan/ton.

6. Price expectations

Next week, paraffin prices are expected to remain stable. Currently, paraffin prices are at a high level, and a decline before May 1st is unlikely.