20260330~20260405 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared to the previous statistical period, the average price of international crude oil surged by approximately $8 per barrel during this period, with Brent crude oil averaging $110.78 per barrel. This week, due to US President Trump’s statement that “in the next two to three weeks, we will send them back to the Stone Age,” and the increasingly imminent ultimatum to “open the Strait of
Hormuz,” the possibility of a “ground war” in the Middle East has significantly increased. International crude oil prices have also surged by 8%, with Brent crude quickly breaking through $110 per barrel and continuing to fluctuate at high levels.

Currently, energy shortages have severely disrupted economic activities worldwide. US gasoline prices may exceed $5 per gallon, and Asian countries such as India, Southeast Asia, Japan, and South Korea have begun snapping up crude oil, natural gas, and related byproducts.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries nationwide, Maoming and Dalian have suspended production, Jingmen has temporarily suspended production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the remaining refineries are operating normally.

3. Stock

Currently, the national inventory is about 0.9 million tons, and with prices high, transactions are becoming increasingly cautious.

4. Market demand

End-user demand is shrinking, with most adopting a wait-and-see approach due to concerns about market capacity.

5. Industry analysis overview

With the rise in paraffin wax prices this week, current prices have reached their highest level since 2023; however, compared to equivalent crude oil prices in 2022, paraffin wax prices still have room for an increase of 1000 yuan/ton. Limited by the current economic environment, end-users in the market are currently worried about paraffin wax prices and are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, correspondingly narrowing the markup space for traders, which is between 0 and 150 yuan/ton.

6. Price expectations

Next week, paraffin wax prices are expected to remain stable. Currently, paraffin wax prices are at a high level, and there may be further room for an increase of 100-300 yuan/ton before May 1st.